IRAN IN A NEW REALITY

IRAN IN A NEW REALITY

ABOUT THE PROGRAM

Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, openly calling for its destruction while actively pursuing the capabilities to realize that objective. In the wake of October 7, Tehran has escalated its longstanding hostility through direct attacks on Israeli territory in April and October 2024. As it moves closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon, Iran continues to fuel instability through regional terrorism, deepening strategic ties with Russia and China, and efforts to undermine Western influence in the Middle East. Meanwhile, growing internal unrest and an impending leadership succession are eroding traditional checks on the regime, emboldening the Revolutionary Guards and intensifying the threat to Israel, regional stability, and global security.

The program aims to provide an updated strategic framework for understanding and responding to Iran’s nuclear progress, its regional strategy, while strengthening Israel’s posture along the US, regional and international partners.  To this end, we work to shape a multidimensional response—integrating diplomatic, military, informational, and economic tools. Thus far, the program has advanced an updated policy tailored to recent developments, initiated dialogue with regional and international partners to coordinate strategies, and continues to support the development of a robust, long-term Israeli strategy toward Iran.

Program Director

Avner Golov                     

Researcher

Shaked Ben Elya

Senior Advisors

Zeev Snir

Udi Evental

Nir Yannay

Program Director

Avner Golov                     

Researcher

Shaked Ben Elya

Senior Advisors

Zeev Snir

Udi Evental

Nir Yannay

ABOUT THE PROGRAM

Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, openly calling for its destruction while actively pursuing the capabilities to realize that objective. In the wake of October 7, Tehran has escalated its longstanding hostility through direct attacks on Israeli territory in April and October 2024. As it moves closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon, Iran continues to fuel instability through regional terrorism, deepening strategic ties with Russia and China, and efforts to undermine Western influence in the Middle East. Meanwhile, growing internal unrest and an impending leadership succession are eroding traditional checks on the regime, emboldening the Revolutionary Guards and intensifying the threat to Israel, regional stability, and global security.

The program aims to provide an updated strategic framework for understanding and responding to Iran’s nuclear progress, its regional strategy, while strengthening Israel’s posture along the US, regional and international partners.  To this end, we work to shape a multidimensional response—integrating diplomatic, military, informational, and economic tools. Thus far, the program has advanced an updated policy tailored to recent developments, initiated dialogue with regional and international partners to coordinate strategies, and continues to support the development of a robust, long-term Israeli strategy toward Iran.

Program Director

Avner Golov                     

Advisor

Shaked Ben Elya

Senior Advisors

Zeev Snir

Udi Evental

Nir Yannay

Researcher

Shaked Ben Elya

“In light of the administration’s aspiration to reach a new agreement with Iran, it is essential to ensure that such a deal is a strong one—dismantling enrichment capabilities, blocking the weaponization pathway, preventing sunset clauses, and enhancing oversight, with a particular focus on military-related activity. The agreement must not include nuclear concessions in exchange for progress on other issues, such as regional activity, operations in Europe, the missile program, or the release of hostages.”

Source: MIND weekly report distributed to senior officials in the foreign ministry and security establishment (March 2025)

"The use of a research reactor being established without foreign involvement, and which at this stage is not under IAEA supervision, would allow the Iranians—should they decide to do so—to convert it for military purposes and produce plutonium or other components for a nuclear weapon.”

Source: MIND red flag report on Iran’s development of a new research reactor (March 2025)

RECENTLY IN THE MEDIA

“Iran, whose influence in Syria and Lebanon has suffered a severe blow, is already working to rebuild Hezbollah by funneling funds to the organization. It is also likely that Iran will simultaneously seek to destabilize the new regime in Syria to reestablish its foothold in the country. To prevent this, it is crucial for Israel and the United States to enforce measures that ensure Hezbollah does not recover and that Iran — "the elephant that was thrown out of the room" — does not return, neither in Lebanon nor in Syria.” (23.2.25)

Amos Yadlin & Udi Evental

“Israel and the United States must work especially hard to align their strategies to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It is increasingly crucial that credible deterrence be established, because the weakening of Iran’s proxy network makes nuclearization a more attractive option.” (17.12.24)

Amos Yadlin & Avner Golov

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